If mobile phones (more like smart phones) are becoming mini-computers, it is very conceivable that many things you run on desktop could be run on smart phones.
The major differences between the two are mobility, contraints and the volume. I was thinking about the last part. There are supposed to be around 3 billion mobile phones in the world, as opposed to some several hundred million PCs. Also most phones are on all the time, albeit in standby mode. If some applications are running all the time, battery wouldn’t last long. If you consider all the phones worldwide, there will be millions phones on at one time.
If there is a way to tap on to each of those phones, combined productivity would be great. There is one sort of application that utilizes a great number of folks downloading at the same time, and it is BitTorrent. Can you imagine BitTorrent running on most smart phones……either streaming or downloading? You can easily max out network capacity…., and your other mobile applications would suffer. The idea of creating mesh network using mobile phones in proximity has been aroudn for a while. It could be doable, but what would be the purpose? Mobile P2P would be cool, but what useful thing can you do with it?
It brings me memory of using the first VoIP app. I was in college, and I remember using it in a dorm room…, and I can’t remember the name of the app, but all I remember is that it really sucked and I was really disappointed. Like any new technology, I think the first batch would be more of “proof-of-concept”. But, it’s almost like evolution – that technology will improve, and at some point, environment will be ripe for the app(s).
I truly believe it’s only matter of time that some sort of P2P or mesh networking. You know, that’s why I think iPhone will lose to hundreds of gPhones. iPhone will kill those applications, but gPhone is for freedom. You can hack it. You can install any applications. You can probably even install modified OS. gPhone will spur much more innovations than iPhone. It’s substance vs. style, and I’d go for substance (with style). :)
Pitting gPhone vs. iPhone reminds me a little bit of what’s going on in the videogame industry. Nintendo DS is dominating the handheld market with its innovative gaming system. It’s fun to use and play, but not easily hacked (although there are some ways). Then there’s the Sony PSP. Most people I know want the PSP so they can hack it and get the old school games…essentially, turn it into more of a mini-computer. Despite this “usefulness” and “depth”, Nintendo DS sales are still much stronger. It’s probably also important to note that Nintendo, like Apple, is a bit of an innovator and leader with style and intuitive technology.
No doubt gPhone will have an affect on iPhone sales. But you must consider all the various types of consumers…especially the less technical ones. The latter is the dominant demographic in cell phone usage :)